Number of the Month

November 2013

Tweedledum and Tweedledee

 In March we warned that the death throes of the global warming were going to be long and ugly and so it is transpiring. Later we lamented the persistence of the zombie theory. With that theory now well into stage five of Langmuir’s Laws of Bad Science, the excuses are becoming as bizarre as would be expected (the oceans ate my homework; why weren’t they included in your models, then?). Battle is joined between the faithful and the sceptics and millions of words are being spilt on the internet. The world, however, is neither watching nor listening: even if it did, most would not understand the minutiae of the arguments. Sceptics are winning all the minor skirmishes, yet losing the public war.

The unique feature of the global warming hypothesis is that it is beneficial to so many different, yet sometimes overlapping, interest groups:

·         The enemy within in western society (the watermelons)

·         Academics seeking cushy financial backing to nourish their personal ambitions

·         Bureaucrats in pursuit of more control and taxation

·         The new breed of comfortable environmental editors and journalists jealously protecting their niches

·         Companies who have developed and rely on the undemanding business of tax subsidy farming

·         Politicians who are desperate to justify their existence by seeming  to be doing something about an allegedly dire threat

·         Politicians in underdeveloped countries looking for large handouts of “guilt” money base on an imaginary menace

·         Individuals (particularly failed politicians) who now devote themselves to becoming mega-rich by exploiting the hysteria.

As a result there is an enormous built-in inertia of self-interest to preserve the status quo. There is, therefore, also a strong motivation to maintain The Censorship. People just do not know what is going on. Ordinary households are being systematically robbed, many to the point of real poverty, while vital indigenous industries are being driven out of western countries by complacent governments.

The trouble with Tweedledum and Tweedledee is that they are so absorbed in the details of their quarrel that people at large are excluded. This can only suit the inertialists, who are comfortable with things as they are.

We return without apology to the relatively unpublicised process at the heart of the deception …

The power of positive feedback

It is the vital secret ingredient that is difficult for most people to understand. It is therefore more valuable to the computer-aided conjurer than all the smoke. mirrors and props are to the stage magician.

Feedback is a potent component of system design, creation and description. Within certain restrictions, negative feedback reduces gain and is a stabilising mechanism, while positive feedback increases gain and can lead to autonomous instability. We recently noted that the climate alarmists had almost exclusively concentrated on proposing mechanisms of the positive sort. In fact, both the theory and the modelling on which climate alarmism is based are highly dependent on the selection of putative positive feedback mechanisms and the corresponding relative diminution of negative ones.

Even the some of the simplest of digital computer models defy convenient forms of stability analysis: it is so easy for such systems to include non-linearity, memory, thresholds etc. We are then reduced to testing with simple trial input signals (such as pulse or step). The warmist modellers are so secretive that we do not know what tests, if any, have been applied. The simplest explanation of the common behaviour of the climate models is that they are all inherently unstable, yielding a ramp-like output, almost regardless of input. Ancient modellers, especially those who go as far back as the days of analogue computers, will be familiar with such behaviour in erroneous models of the real world.

Forty years ago, we were trying to teach students not to pre-load computer models with assumptions based their own prejudices, which would predetermine the outcome. Now, professors are doing just that and thereby achieving world fame. Appropriate point for a timely repetition ...

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But, on to other gross examples of profitable exploitation of the populace ...

The pushers push on

This month has seen an upsurge in the promotion of statins, to the point that their use is proposed to be forced upon all older people regardless of their condition of health (Millions more told to take statins but Wider use of statins disturbing, according to the Telegraph). The system of drug apartheid that has developed in recent years is one of the most mysterious manifestations of the global lunacy that has been spread by the explosion of communications. The valued medication Vioxx was withdrawn because the “experts” could not read a simple graph, while statins rise immaculate above the murk of dubious practices to become the basis of a world-wide and highly profitable industry. The counter argument to the demonisation of cholesterol has been explained with considerable clarity, yet the medical establishment simply ignore it. Instead they join in on the promotion of statins as magic potions without any serious side effects. There is an international group of highly qualified professionals who are sceptical about the whole construction (THINCS), but their views are ignored and even suppressed. If anyone still doubts the efficiency of The Censorship in the scientific literature, they should have a look at the catalogue of unpublished letters (with some editors’ replies) maintained by THINCS. The more serious side effects of statins include kidney problems, sexual dysfunction, cataracts, diabetes,  muscle pain, muscle weakness, fatigue, peripheral neuropathy, memory loss, thinking problems and mood or personality changes. You can find accounts of these mainly hidden in obscure patient discussion sites on the web, but one brave university group (in California of all places) is conducting a systematic review in defiance of the establishment bullying.

The other set of pushers who are wrecking people’s lives for fun and profit are the promoters of betting.

It is clear from indirect evidence that the gambling industry is expanding at an extraordinary rate. Even in the relatively short time since we identified it as one of the two great plagues of modern Britain, the self-evident wealth and influence of this largely covert economic sector has burgeoned excessively.

The Treasury is keeping quiet because it is creaming off a steady 15% betting duty from the profits of the burgeoning bookmakers. The establishment media are keeping quiet because they are creaming off huge amounts of advertising revenue. The sports industries are keeping quiet because they are getting not only the advertising revenue, but also huge tranches of money from sponsorship deals. Even the supposedly advertisement-free BBC, in its results announcements, is obliged to give free publicity to betting firms whose names are now included in the titles of major leagues that they sponsor. Huge and rapidly growing sums of money are swashing around in the economy and it is being torn from families that are least able to afford it. Furthermore, with so many snouts in this particular trough, the odds offered to punters must be a long way off the mathematically fair odds, so that their chances of avoiding accumulating loss are virtually negligible.

I am a football follower, a relatively harmless form of addiction, because of exposure to it during a childhood in Tottenham, one of the hotbeds of the game. As a result, virtually the only live TV I watch comprises football matches. Every week I am exposed to many offers of free bets. There would be outrage if the offers were for free heroin samples, yet both are cases of hooks to entrap potential addicts. Both are sources of widespread human misery. We only see the tip of this hazardous iceberg when a notable event occurs, such as the bankruptcy of a grossly overpaid footballer, but the underlying growing infestation remains ignored by the commentariat.

I have closely observed the culture of the gambling set at the local social club. They live in a culture of self-deception in which they readily forget their continual losses in exchange for the rare high, with associated bragging rights, when they pull off a coup. It is clear that most of them cannot afford the steady attrition of their income that this behaviour engenders. It is a form of mental illness, a serious addiction that impoverishes families, usually without their knowledge, and this at a time when families are under almost unprecedented financial strain. Is it pure coincidence that nine million families are now in serious debt? Obviously many other blatant political follies are involved here, such as heating bills, but it is inconceivable that one such major and growing drain on family resources is entirely innocent. But hush! We are not supposed to speak of that.

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28/11/13

And the very next day!

Print version headline to a full page article in the Daily Telegraph: Beautiful game? Don’t bet on it; an eloquent survey by sports writer Jim White. It is pleasing to note that he allocates the political blame to where it belongs, with New Labour, but what has the Heir to Blair done about it?

29/11/13

Number of the month 29%

This is the estimated increase in excess winter mortality in 2011/2012. It is largely caused by the imposition of fuel poverty on much of the population by energy acts and the Climate Change Act. You ain’t seen nothing yet. Wait until the green-inspired power cuts start. Time: the future.

 

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